Scientific Journal Of King Faisal University: Basic and Applied Sciences

ع

Scientific Journal of King Faisal University: Humanities and Management

Investigating Some Characteristics and Features of the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC) Stock Markets

(Sam Mohamad)

Abstract

In this paper, some GCC stock markets’ characteristics and features (volatility clustering, reversion to the mean, risk return relationship, leverage effect and weak-form efficiency) were investigated. For this purpose, the following tests and models were applied: augmented dickey fuller test and the models GARCH (1.1), EGARCH (1.1) and GARCH-M (1.1), using data over a period from 2010 until 2013 for all the markets except Kuwait stock markets (its data was until 2012). It was concluded after the implementation that the stock markets of Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman were characterized by all studied features in this work, except for weak-form efficiency. Bahrain stock market was characterized by all the features except for leverage effect and weak-form efficiency whereas Abu Dhabi stock market was characterized by one feature only (i.e. the reversion to the mean). KEYWORDS GARCH models, leverage effect, volatility clustering
PDF

References

Abdalla, S.Z.S. (2012). Modelling exchange rate volatility using GARCH models: empirical evidence from arab countries. International Journal of Economics and Finance. 4(3), 216–29. 
Abdmoulah, W. (2010). Testing the evolving efficiency of Arab stock markets. International Review of Financial Analysis. 19(n/a), 25–34.
Abraham, A., Seyyed, F.J., and Alsakran, S.A. (2002). Testing the random walk behavior and efficiency of the gulf stock markets. The Financial Review. 37(n/a), 469–80.
Alfiumi, Nadal. (2002). Aistiqsa' tajribiun litadhabdhub eayid suq masqat lil'awraq almaliati ‘empirical investigation of the returns’ volatility at Muscat stock exchange’.  Majalat dirasati, Eimadat Albahth Aleilmi, Aljamieat Al'urduniyat. 30(1), 244–52. [in Arabic] 
Al-Jafari, M. K. (2011). Testing the weak-form efficiency of bahrain securities market. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. 72(n/a), 14–24.
Al-Jafari, M. K., and Abdulkadhim, H. H. (2012). variance ratio test and weak-form efficiency of Bahrain bourse. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. 88(n/a), 92–101.
Al-Saleh, N. and Al-Ajmi, J. (2012). Weak-form efficiency in the Saudi stock market. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. 87(n/a), 192–211.
Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics. 31(n/a), 307–27.
Engel, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of united kingdom inflation. Econometrica. 50(n/a), 987–1007.
Engle, R. F., Lilien, D. M., and Robins, R. P. (1987). estimating time varying risk premia in the term structure: The ARCH-M model. Econometrica. 55(2), 391–407.
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance. 25(2), 383–417.
Ghasan, Hasn, Wa Ihjhwj, Hasn. (2012). athar tahrir suq ras almal ealaa altadhabdhub fi suq al'ashum alsaeudi ‘the effect of capital market liberation on the volatility in the Saudi stock exchange’. Majalat altanmiat walsiyasat alaiqtisadiatu, Almaehad alearabii liltakhtiti, Alkuayta. 14(2), 7–39. [in Arabic]
Gujarat, D. N. (2004). Basic Econometrics. 4th Edition. USA: McGraw−Hill Companies.
Hamid, K., Suleman, M. T., Saleh, S. Z. A., and Akash, R. S. I. (2010). Testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis: Empirical evidence from Asia-Pacific markets. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. 58(n/a), 414–27. 
Hassan, A. M. H. (2003). Financial integration of stock markets in the Gulf: A multivariate cointegration analysis. International Journal of Business. 8(3), 335-346.
Hassan, K. M., Al-Sultan, W. S., and Al-Saleem, J. A. (2003). stock market efficiency in the gulf cooperation council countries (GCC): The case of Kuwait stock exchange. Scientific Journal of Administrative Development. 1(1), 1–21.
Khedhiri S., and Muhammad N. (2008). empirical analysis of the UAE stock market volatility. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. 15(n/a), 249–60.
Kozhan, R. (2010). Financial Econometrics. Copenhagen, Denmark: Ventus Publishing Aps.
Lahmiri, S. (2013). Do MENA stock market returns follow a random walk process? International Journal of Industrial Engineering Computations. 4(n/a), 165–72.
Moustafa, M. (2004). Testing the weak-form efficiency of the united arab emirates stock market. International Journal of Business. 9(3), 31–52.
Muhmad, M.J. (2010). Aistikhdam namadhij GARCH liltanabuw bimuashir suq al'awraq almaliat alsaeudiati ‘Using GARCH models to forecaste the Saudi stock exchange’s index’. Majalat kuliyat alrrafidayn aljamieat lileulumi, Kuliyat alrrafidayn aljamieiati, Baghadadi, Alearaq, bidun raqm mijld. n/a (25), 133–48. [in Arabic]
National bank of Kuwait. (2013). GCC Economic Outlook January 2013. Kuwait: National bank of Kuwait. 
Nelson, D. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica. 59(n/a), 347-370. 
Onour, I. A. (2009). Testing efficiency performance of Saudi stock market. JKAU: Econ. and Adm. 23(2), 15–27.
Riabacke, A. (2006). managerial decision making under risk and uncertainty. IAENG International Journal of Computer Science. 32(4), 1–7. 
Squalli, J. (2006). A non-parametric assessment of weak-form efficiency in the UAE financial markets. Applied Financial Economics. 16(n/a), 1365–73.
Worthington, A. C., and Higgs, Helen. (2003). Weak-form market efficiency in European emerging and developed stock markets. Discussion Paper and Working Papers Series. School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.