Simulation of Urban Growth for Riyadh Metropolitan by Applying Modeling of CA-Markov and Land Change Modeler

(Tha’r Mutlaq Mohammed Ayasrah)

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Abstract

The change of land uses / land cover is an important issue that effect global ecological system change. In order to maintain biodiversity and environmental sustainability. planners need more tools and correct statistics to study the changes and set expectations to achieve future vision and assess environmental sustainability. This article aims to analyze changes in land cover for the Metropolis Riyadh between (1990-2016) using satellite images and simulate urban growth until 2030 using Idrisi Silva program® tools. This was applied land change modeler to determine the changes in land cover and the trend of urban growth. In addition. the growth of built-up area in Metropolis Riyadh until 2030 was simulated using (LCM) and (CA-Markov) modeling. The results of change analysis by (LCM) showed increased of the built-up area between 1990 and 2016 of about (431) km2. The results of simulation until 2030 showed an increase of built-up area to (1204) km2. On the other hand. it indicated differences between the two models in spatial distribution of urban growth from one location to another. The accuracy of the classification maps was validated using kappa and overall accuracy indices. which showed high accuracy in classification. as well as validating of simulation maps when compared with reference map in 2016 using the kappa indicators. all of which have showed high accuracy. Finally. the work recommends the High Commission for the Development of Riyadh to take urban expansion of the Metropolis into account. in addition to its consequences that poses more pressure on undeveloped land. Furthermore. the work recommends preserving Wadi Hanifa area from expansion to serve as a natural area outlet for the Metropolis. Key Words: GIS. IDRISI Selva17. Markov Analysis. Urban Growth.
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