Deforestation Trends Analysis and Simulation of Future Deforestation Using GEOMOD Modeling: Jarash and Ajloun Governorates, Jordan

(Tha’r Mutlaq Mohammed Ayasrah)

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Abstract

Forests are of great importance from an environmental perspective. As well as being centres for biodiversity, they affect the climate positively and contain plant germplasm. Furthermore, forests absorb large quantities of gases and air pollutants, and they play a major role in carbon offsets. Thus, the lack of planning in forest exploitation and its destructive consequences are major factors in environmental deterioration. This article aims mainly to analyse forest area trends from 1987–2016, as well as using IDRISI Selva program® models, namely GEOMOD Modeling, to simulate future scenarios of change until the year 2045. The work was conducted using data for the Jerash and Ajloun governorates in Jordan. The results derived from change analysis show that there was an alarming rise in the rate of deforestation during the period spanning 1987–2016. This is a cause for concern as a total of 3.7 km2 of forest area has been removed within a mere 29 years, with the annual rate of destruction being 0.127 km2. This was a result of both fire and excessive cutting of trees for trade (timber cutting). Furthermore, GEOMOD Modeling results show that the area of forest in 2045 is expected to decrease to 98.85 km2, compared to an area of 102.55 km2 in 2016, if the current cutting pace remains constant. 

KEYWORDS
Deforestation, environmental sustainable, gis, idrisi silva program, land change modeler 

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